WEATHER OUTLOOK: 21 DECEMBER 2016

Dry conditions continue into summer

Seasonal conditions heated up in November with above-average daytime temperatures and just 56 per cent of the state receiving near-average rainfall.

NSW Department of Primary Industries (DPI) Seasonal Conditions Coordinator
. Ian McGowen, said that during November above-average rainfall was limited to areas of the far south west.

“Most of the north west, northern tablelands and the coast received below-average rainfall during November,” Mr McGowen said.

“Rainfall across the state ranged from 1-159mm. The far west received between 1-25mm, the south and east recorded up to 50mm, and the north west and northern central west received 5-25mm.

“Areas across the tablelands, Hunter valley, mid north coast, far north coast and the south west slopes received up to 100mm.

“The daytime temperatures were above average across most of eastern, northern and central NSW, particularly in areas along the Illawarra to north coast and the Hunter valley.

“Relative to historical records, pasture growth was average across much of western and southern NSW, but below average across most of the north of the state, the central west and the coast. Limited areas of above average growth occurred across the western, southern and central areas of the state.

“Top-soil moisture declined across NSW relative to historical records, to near average across most of NSW, but below average across most the north, north west and east.”

Mr McGowen said that after difficulties with ground preparation for summer crops in the south following a very wet winter and September, the establishment of cotton crops has been slow and rice has been variable due to cool October temperatures and some damage caused by ducks.

“Summer crop establishment in the north has been good with an increase in irrigated cotton, following improved water allocations. Above average yields are possible for dryland sorghum if reasonable summer rainfall occurs,” Mr McGowen said.

“On the north coast, soybean sowing has been delayed due to dry conditions.”

The Bureau of Meteorology’s rainfall outlook for January to March indicates that, except for some western areas of NSW, drier than normal conditions are likely with warmer than normal daytime and overnight temperatures. This follows on from a similar outlook for the December to February period.

The Pacific Ocean remains in an El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) neutral state. Most models suggest neutral conditions continuing into summer, although with slightly cooler than average sea surface temperatures in the central equatorial Pacific. A La Niña event is now unlikely.

Primary producers are encouraged to plan ahead for dry conditions, to ensure they are in a better position to manage the impacts.

Information on a vast range of services and support to prepare for and manage drought conditions are available at Droughthub — www.droughthub.nsw.gov.au.

Based on media release issued by NSW Department of Primary Industries.